Bold takeaway: the political landscape in Australia is shifting as more voters entertain backing One Nation, despite Pauline Hanson’s provocative comments. And this is the part most people miss: the rise spans across voters from different parties, not just fringe audiences.
Guardian Essential’s latest poll suggests broad openness to One Nation in the next federal election, with nearly 60% of Australians saying they’d consider voting for the party at some level. Notably, about half of current Labor supporters indicated they might back Pauline Hanson, a development that alarms both government and Coalition strategists.
In this snapshot, Angus Taylor’s leadership of the Liberal Party hasn’t moved the needle much for the opposition. The primary vote remains largely steady, and opinions are split on whether Taylor’s move against Sussan Ley makes voters more or less likely to support the Coalition.
The Guardian Essential poll, conducted with 1,002 Australians last week, shows a largely unchanged federal primary vote: Labor at 30% (down 1 point from January) and the Coalition at 26% (up 1 point). One Nation stays steady at 22%, Greens at 11%, independents/others at 7%, and 4% undecided.
Despite ongoing controversy around Hanson—ranging from inflammatory remarks about Muslims to a burqa stunt in the Senate and scrutiny over her ties with billionaire Gina Rinehart—the poll indicates rising support for One Nation since October. In the week Hanson declined to apologize for her comments on Sky News about Muslims, 58% of respondents said they would vote for One Nation or were open to it at the next election, which must occur by 2028.
Among all respondents, 25% said they would definitely back One Nation, 33% were open to it, 28% would never vote for the party, and 14% were unsure.
A striking detail is the cross-party appeal. While One Nation’s primary vote has surged—from 6.4% of the lower house vote in May 2025 to roughly a quarter in various polls—the major parties are worried, especially the Coalition, which saw internal splits and a rightward tilt attributed in part to Hanson’s rise.
In February, the poll reveals Labor voters are also considering One Nation. Among Coalition voters, 17% said they’d definitely vote One Nation next time, while 51% said they were open to it. Among Labor supporters, 12% would definitely vote One Nation, with 33% open to it.
The timing coincided with Angus Taylor’s first full week as Liberal leader after he ousted Sussan Ley. When asked how Taylor’s leadership might influence votes, 12% said they’d vote Liberal much more likely, 14% somewhat more likely, 12% much less likely, and 7% somewhat less likely. Overall, 26% would be more likely to vote Liberal under Taylor, while 19% would be less likely, with 14% unsure.
Peter Lewis, executive director of Essential Media, cautioned that neither major party can ignore Hanson’s surge. He noted that isolating One Nation has ceased to be a viable long-term tactic and emphasized the need to understand the drivers behind her growing support as populism gains traction globally.
Beyond rhetoric, One Nation’s policy clarity remains murky. Proposals include deporting an estimated 75,000 unauthorized migrants, tightening visas for students and skilled workers, introducing citizen-initiated referendums for constitutional changes, and abolishing several federal agencies including the climate department, the National Indigenous Australians Agency, and the Therapeutic Goods Administration.
Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese attributed the rising One Nation vote to disaffected former Coalition supporters seeking alternatives, framing One Nation as a grievance-fueled movement that offers little in the way of concrete cost-of-living relief.
Former Labor figure Wayne Swan has warned about the risk of a 30% primary vote threshold being breached under preferential voting, potentially enabling a hard-right coalition to surge. Swan urged Labor to engage more effectively with everyday Australians, focusing on housing, health, and tax to build durable support.
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